Central Asia, Indian Ocean
In an effort to eradicate a plague we helped release for short term gain and at our own long term cost, the northern third of the so called arc of instability needs to be addressed. We have to eschew the juvenile and parochial notions that we are the super power and must get our way and that dislike of a given government requires action on our part. We can work with any government as long as the other nation works from self interest and not spite.
India is a democracy, respects trade and property and has assets that combined with the U.S. are formidable. I do not care about the non-aligned movement and all the rest of the claptrap that has kept the U.S. and India from working together. Unlike most of its neighbors, India progresses, its neighbors are largely poorly governed, poor, and undesirable. However the arc of instability passes to the northwest of India and thru what was until 1947 considered Indian territory.
By way of background Bangladesh is an interesting example or model of how Indian intervention succeeded and a model we could have followed at various times. Bangladesh used to be East Pakistan, oppressed by co-religionists of different nationality from West Pakistan they were desirous of independence. In 1971 Pakistan and India came to blows. In a brilliant campaign the Indian Forces out-thought and out-maneuvered the Pakistani Forces, with aid from Bangladeshi insurgents. East Pakistan fell and the new country of Bangladesh arose.
Well there are other peoples oppressed in the same fashion, who could benefit form a similar resolution. The key was in the rapid military phase, conquest and withdrawal. The Indians turned over the country to its own people quickly. The two governments have normal relations with both success and tension. Yet, there is no hostility, no fruitless occupation and no lasting enmity. The same could be done for other nations.
There are many, many nationalities throughout the so called arc, and most are under the thumb of some other nationality. Policies to bring “stability” to any region that depend on the peaceful subordination of one nationality to another are pipe dreams. We have to break things down further where necessary. The various ethnic groups of Kashmir, Pakistan and Afghanistan need to be allowed independence. Truly people of these counties don’t see themselves as Pakistanis or Afghani’s but as Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimak, Turkmen, Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashtun (Pathan), Baloch and more! They should have their own countries, until they do there will no peace without extermination.
India and the U.S. have the power to wreck the oppressive states and free these ethnicities. We don’t have the power to administer, occupy or dictate to these nationalities. Occupying a country until it is ready for independence is a phony pretext to dominate it, and it never works anyway because of human nature. We can cut their shackles but then it is entirely up to them to succeed or fail. But with this exercise of power we eliminate intractable oppressive problematic states. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, can be considered based upon actual prior success. We must reassert the Tom Doctrine that we will recognize any government that is indigenously generated.
But to enact policies like these that look to a goal, and are informed by evidence instead of ideology, we will surely need a new government.